【行業數據】研究：未來五年將有四分一職業被淘汰 Reports suggest one quarter of current jobs will be disrupted in the next five years

世界經濟論壇最新發表《2023年就業前景報告》，報告收集了來自45個經濟體、27個產業群，合共803家企業的數據，覆蓋逾1130萬名工人，為就業市場揭示了重要的趨勢。

報告顯示，不少僱主預計未來五年，勞動力市場有23％組成部份將會出現結構性轉變，預示著新興職位將會有增加，而舊有職位則會減少。受訪企業預計，在經濟轉弱和自動化的影響下，勞動力市場將出現6900萬個職位的結構性增長，同時亦會有8300萬個職位消失，即是話未來五年將有四分一職業被淘汰。

而在未來這五年，科技應用將是企業轉型的主要動力，有超過85%的受訪企業認為加強應用新的先進技術及數碼化等趨勢最有可能推動企業轉型；逾75%的企業計劃在未來五年採用新技術，包括大數據、雲端運算和人工智能。

調查顯示，環境、技術和經濟趨勢對創造就業的影響最大，預計促進綠色轉型的投資、更廣泛地應用ESG標準和供應鏈本地化，將是推動就業凈增長的最強因素。

調整發現，增長最快的職業是由技術、數字化和可持續性推動的，當中大多數更與人工智能（AI ）和機器學習專家（Machine Learning Specialists ）有關，其次是可持續發展專家（Sustainability Specialists）、商業分析師（Business Intelligence Analysts）和信息安全分析師（Information Security Analysts）。隨著經濟轉向可再生能源，可再生能源工程師（Renewable Energy Engineers）和太陽能安裝和系統工程師等職位也相對快速增長。

另一方面，有些職業就因為科技和數碼化而快速減少，包括文書或秘書類職業，其中銀行出納員、郵政服務員、收銀員和售票員以及數據輸入員等等。

總體而言，科技應用和綠色轉型將塑造未來我們的職位，即使一些工作將會消失，但同時亦會有新的工作出現，而科技、數碼化和可持續發展將影響著特定行業的就業情況，因此了解這些趨勢對準備未來的工作非常重要。

The topic of the future of jobs is currently a hotly debated issue, and the Future of Jobs Report 2023 by the World Economic Forum contains some interesting findings that are worth noting. The report collected data from 803 companies across 27 industry clusters and 45 economies, employing over 11.3 million workers collectively, revealing some crucial trends.

Employers predict a structural labour market churn of 23% of jobs in the next five years. This means that a mix of emerging jobs will be added, and declining jobs will be eliminated. Respondents anticipate a structural job growth of 69 million jobs, and a decline of 83 million jobs due to economic pressure and automation. This suggests that one quarter of current jobs will be disrupted in the next five years.

Technology adoption will continue to be a significant driver of business transformation in the next five years. Over 85% of organisations surveyed identified increased adoption of new and frontier technologies, as well as broadening digital access as the trends most likely to drive transformation in their organisations. The technologies most likely to be adopted by the organisations surveyed are big data, cloud computing, and AI, with over 75% of companies looking to adopt these technologies in the next five years.

The survey also indicates that the most significant job creation and destruction effects come from environmental, technology, and economic trends. Businesses predict that the strongest net job-creation effect will be driven by investments that facilitate the green transition of businesses, the broader application of ESG standards, and supply chains becoming more localised.

The fastest-growing roles relative to their size today are driven by technology, digitalization, and sustainability. The majority of the fastest-growing roles are technology-related roles, with AI and Machine Learning Specialists topping the list, followed by Sustainability Specialists, Business Intelligence Analysts, and Information Security Analysts. Renewable Energy Engineers and Solar Energy Installation and System Engineers are also relatively fast-growing roles as economies shift towards renewable energy.

On the other hand, the fastest-declining roles relative to their size today are driven by technology and digitalization. The majority of the fastest-declining roles are clerical or secretarial roles, with Bank Tellers and Related Clerks, Postal Service Clerks, Cashiers and Ticket Clerks, and Data Entry Clerks expected to decline fastest.

Overall, the future of jobs will be shaped by a combination of technology adoption and the green transition. The key takeaway is that while some jobs will decline, others will emerge, and the shift towards technology, digitalization, and sustainability will drive specific areas of job growth and decline. It's important to stay informed about these trends to prepare for the future of work.